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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ rams week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-13
+8.5
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
-8.5
LARRams
11-5
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model83.9%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams-8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+22.0%
Cover Probability
63.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+388
Home nfelo
1,660
Away nfelo
1,371
Home Field
+40.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+58.8
Home QB Adjustment
+22.9
Away QB Adjustment
-35.9
Market Regression
+23.7
Final Difference
286.5
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-35.9
Value
Ptile
10/19
0.1
52
11/03
-0.2
49
11/09
-1.6
39
11/16
9.7
97
11/23
-1.1
42
11/30
2.6
69
12/07
-0.5
45
12/14
4.4
79
12/21
-4.9
18
12/28
-3.4
26
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
Value
Ptile
10/19
5.4
86
11/02
6.2
89
11/09
5.5
87
11/16
-0.3
47
11/23
5.0
85
11/30
-2.9
29
12/07
6.8
91
12/14
2.9
72
12/18
12.2
99
12/29
-5.6
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
19
17
Passing Yards / Game
5
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
13

EPA

EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
26
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
8
4th Down Efficiency
30
16
RZ Efficiency
22
3
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
2
26
Passing Yards / Game
7
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25

EPA

EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
3
27
EPA / Rush
12
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
15
7
Turnover EPA / Game
14
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
26
4th Down Efficiency
5
8
RZ Efficiency
8
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-4
L
W
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/09
-22
L
L
O
11/16
-19
L
L
O
11/23
-3
L
L
O
11/30
-3
L
W
U
12/07
-28
L
L
O
12/14
-20
L
L
O
12/21
-7
L
L
U
12/28
-23
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
28
W
W
U
11/02
24
W
W
U
11/09
16
W
W
O
11/16
2
W
L
U
11/23
27
W
W
U
11/30
-3
L
L
O
12/07
28
W
W
O
12/14
7
W
W
O
12/18
-1
L
W
O
12/29
-3
L
L
O