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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ seahawks week 16, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
4-9
27
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
7 mph
13
SEASeahawks
11-3
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
10
3
7
27
Seahawks
7
0
0
6
13

Spread

ARI logo
+8

Total

UNDER
51

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
412
224
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
6.0
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.32
Passing Yards
159
133
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.31
Rushing Yards
253
91
Rush Attempts
40
20
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.29
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-8
-36
Sack EPA
-3.72
-5.39
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
47
55
Penalty EPA
-2.24
-6.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model78.9%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks-8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.9%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+264
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,357
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
+16.9
Market Regression
-6.3
Final Difference
229.1
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
10/06
6.4
88
10/13
8.4
94
10/20
-5.2
19
10/27
-5.1
19
10/31
5.0
84
11/10
3.7
76
11/17
6.3
88
12/01
-7.2
11
12/08
-7.4
10
12/15
4.5
81
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Value
Ptile
10/03
8.8
94
10/13
5.8
86
10/20
-1.8
40
10/27
-2.6
34
11/03
9.6
96
11/11
0.9
59
11/24
-8.4
8
12/02
1.0
60
12/08
-5.0
20
12/15
3.8
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
16
19
Yards / Game
20
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22

EPA

EPA / Play
17
19
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
5
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
9
Interceptions / Game
16
9
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Seahawks logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
9
28
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
10
32
Rushing Yards / Game
6
23

EPA

EPA / Play
9
28
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
19
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
6
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
7
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/13
1
W
W
O
10/20
6
W
W
U
10/27
-22
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
W
O
11/10
-3
L
W
O
11/17
-10
L
P
O
12/01
-27
L
L
U
12/08
-6
L
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
1
W
L
O
10/13
4
W
W
O
10/20
-14
L
L
U
10/27
7
W
L
U
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/11
3
W
W
O
11/24
8
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
O
12/08
-16
L
L
U
12/15
6
W
P
O