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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ titans week 15, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
8-5
37
TBD
Nissan Stadium
37°F
4 mph
34
TENTitans
5-8
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
37°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cardinals
7
3
10
8
3
31
Titans
10
0
7
17
0
34

Spread

ARI logo
TEN logo
3
P

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
360
460
Total Plays
68
80
Yards / Play
5.3
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.09
Passing Yards
215
394
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
36/58(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.14
Rushing Yards
145
66
Rush Attempts
36
19
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
24
32
Passing 1st downs
12
23
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-16.29
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-0.72
-3.71
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
69
16
Penalty EPA
-6.45
-4.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-68
Home nfelo
1,403
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-6.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+20.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Value
Ptile
09/29
-3.8
26
10/06
-6.8
12
10/13
1.4
60
10/17
-5.7
15
10/27
-2.6
35
11/10
1.2
58
11/17
6.2
87
11/24
3.9
77
12/01
-3.1
31
12/08
5.5
85
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Value
Ptile
12/09
-2.0
35
12/16
-4.6
21
12/23
-1.3
40
12/30
1.4
60
10/06
-0.5
47
10/13
-5.6
17
11/14
3.3
72
11/24
6.9
90
12/01
-1.5
42
12/08
-4.6
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Titans Defense
Cardinals logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
16
16
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
19

EPA

EPA / Play
21
22
EPA / Pass
19
15
EPA / Rush
26
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
23
Interceptions / Game
28
22
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
4
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
27
RZ Efficiency
24
27
Titans Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Titans logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
18
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1

EPA

EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
13
4
EPA / Rush
12
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
18
5
Fumbles / Game
5
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
9
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/06
16
W
W
U
10/13
-12
L
L
O
10/17
-12
L
L
O
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/10
3
W
L
O
11/17
13
W
W
O
11/24
29
W
W
O
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/08
20
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
25
W
W
O
10/06
-9
L
L
O
10/13
-7
L
W
U
10/20
-14
L
L
O
11/03
7
W
W
O
11/10
-2
L
L
O
11/14
-3
L
L
O
11/24
4
W
W
P
12/01
-8
L
L
U
12/08
-23
L
L
O