LACChargers
2-4
30
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
64°F
10 mph
31
DENBroncos
2-4
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
64°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
14
10
6
30
Broncos
3
0
7
21
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
485
351
Total Plays
84
59
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.06
Passing Yards
275
243
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.08
Rushing Yards
210
108
Rush Attempts
38
16
Yards / Rush
5.5
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
17
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
44%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.05
-4.37
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-3
-5
Sack EPA
-1.50
-1.82
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
67
70
Penalty EPA
-7.24
-6.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-34.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+26.1
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.1
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25
EPA
EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
31
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
20
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
29
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17
EPA
EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
26
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
23
24
Turnover EPA / Game
1
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
22
4th Down Efficiency
32
26
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U