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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ broncos week 8, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAC logo
LACChargers
2-4
30
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
64°F
10 mph
31
DENBroncos
2-4
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
64°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
14
10
6
30
Broncos
3
0
7
21
31

Spread

DEN logo
+3

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
485
351
Total Plays
84
59
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.06
Passing Yards
275
243
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.08
Rushing Yards
210
108
Rush Attempts
38
16
Yards / Rush
5.5
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
28
17
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
44%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.05
-4.37
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-3
-5
Sack EPA
-1.50
-1.82
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
67
70
Penalty EPA
-7.24
-6.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-34.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+26.1
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+26.1
Value
Ptile
09/20
3.9
72
09/27
2.8
65
10/04
4.8
78
10/12
3.0
67
10/25
11.5
98
P. Lock headshot

P. Lock

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Value
Ptile
12/01
-0.4
49
12/08
5.3
84
12/15
-7.4
10
12/22
0.9
59
12/29
-3.0
31
09/14
1.3
52
09/20
-6.6
9
10/18
-9.6
4
10/25
-3.9
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25

EPA

EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
31
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
20
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
29
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17

EPA

EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
26
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
23
24
Turnover EPA / Game
1
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
22
4th Down Efficiency
32
26
RZ Efficiency
27
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
35
W
W
O
12/15
-29
L
L
O
12/22
-7
L
L
U
12/29
-10
L
P
O
09/13
3
W
W
U
09/20
-3
L
W
U
09/27
-5
L
L
U
10/04
-7
L
W
O
10/12
-3
L
W
O
10/25
10
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
14
W
W
O
12/15
-20
L
L
U
12/22
10
W
W
O
12/29
1
W
L
U
09/14
-2
L
W
U
09/20
-5
L
W
O
09/27
-18
L
L
U
10/01
9
W
W
O
10/18
6
W
W
U
10/25
-27
L
L
O