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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ cardinals week 1, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
-
17
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
18
ARICardinals
-
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
3
14
0
17
Cardinals
0
6
0
12
18

Spread

LAC logo
+3

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
290
403
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
4.8
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
294
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.16
Rushing Yards
52
109
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
40%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-2.55
-9.83
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-6.01
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
47
23
Penalty EPA
-6.34
-4.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model54.6%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-4
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
32.4
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Value
Ptile
11/10
-1.7
41
11/17
0.5
54
11/24
10.3
96
12/01
0.5
53
12/08
5.3
84
12/12
-0.4
48
12/22
-3.2
30
12/29
0.6
54
01/05
0.5
53
01/12
0.1
51
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Value
Ptile
10/17
-5.7
15
10/27
-2.6
35
11/10
1.2
58
11/17
6.2
87
11/24
3.9
77
12/01
-3.1
31
12/08
5.5
85
12/15
0.2
51
12/22
-8.9
5
12/29
5.0
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Chargers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
19
25
Passing Yards / Game
8
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17

EPA

EPA / Play
12
3
EPA / Pass
7
6
EPA / Rush
27
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
22
Interceptions / Game
26
9
Fumbles / Game
2
24
Turnover EPA / Game
23
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
19
5
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Cardinals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Cardinals logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
28
10
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
25

EPA

EPA / Play
26
23
EPA / Pass
20
21
EPA / Rush
31
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
16
Interceptions / Game
13
28
Fumbles / Game
5
6
Turnover EPA / Game
19
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
3
RZ Efficiency
28
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
-8
L
L
U
11/17
-4
L
L
U
11/24
3
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
23
W
W
O
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/22
13
W
W
U
12/29
3
W
L
O
01/05
17
W
W
U
01/12
-7
L
W
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-12
L
L
O
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/10
3
W
L
O
11/17
13
W
W
O
11/24
29
W
W
O
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/08
20
W
W
U
12/15
3
W
P
O
12/22
7
W
W
U
12/29
-3
L
L
O