LACChargers
1-1
30
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
81°F
19 mph
24
KCChiefs
1-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
81°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
14
0
16
30
Chiefs
0
3
14
7
24
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
437
Total Plays
62
76
Yards / Play
5.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.07
Passing Yards
277
251
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.09
Rushing Yards
77
186
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
3.5
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
33
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
36%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-18.03
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-9
Sack EPA
-1.78
-2.62
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
50
56
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-14.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,625
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+54.3
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
-19.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
+11.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
7
24
EPA / Pass
7
22
EPA / Rush
16
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
24
Interceptions / Game
21
15
Fumbles / Game
7
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
4
23
Rushing Yards / Game
12
30
EPA
EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
5
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
1
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U