LACChargers
8-4
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
50°F
10 mph
19
KCChiefs
11-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
50°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
0
14
3
17
Chiefs
3
10
0
6
19
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
298
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
5.1
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.12
Passing Yards
194
202
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.02
Rushing Yards
94
96
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
46%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-19
-8
Sack EPA
-3.95
-4.44
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
50
98
Penalty EPA
-6.25
-12.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,629
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
+21.7
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
-18.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
-14.4
Net QB Adjustment
-4.3
Home QB Adjustment
-13.9
Away QB Adjustment
-9.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
17
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
19
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
15
Interceptions / Game
5
17
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
9
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
2
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14
EPA
EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
12
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
25
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U