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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ chiefs week 14, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
8-4
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
50°F
10 mph
19
KCChiefs
11-1
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
50°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
0
14
3
17
Chiefs
3
10
0
6
19

Spread

LAC logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
288
298
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
5.1
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.12
Passing Yards
194
202
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.02
Rushing Yards
94
96
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
46%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-19
-8
Sack EPA
-3.95
-4.44
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
50
98
Penalty EPA
-6.25
-12.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+40.0
Divisional Adj
-18.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
-14.3
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
-13.9
Away QB Adjustment
-9.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Value
Ptile
09/22
-2.9
29
09/29
-2.7
30
10/13
-1.5
38
10/21
0.8
54
10/27
4.7
79
11/03
-0.6
45
11/10
4.0
75
11/17
3.6
73
11/25
-0.9
43
12/01
-9.1
3
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.3
58
09/29
-2.8
29
10/07
2.1
64
10/20
-3.2
27
10/27
2.8
68
11/04
4.3
76
11/10
1.0
56
11/17
-0.5
46
11/24
5.8
83
11/29
-3.7
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
17
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10

EPA

EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
19
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
15
Interceptions / Game
5
17
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
9
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
2
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14

EPA

EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
12
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
25
RZ Efficiency
21
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-10
L
L
U
09/29
-7
L
W
U
10/13
7
W
W
O
10/21
-2
L
L
U
10/27
18
W
W
U
11/03
17
W
W
U
11/10
10
W
W
O
11/17
7
W
W
O
11/25
-7
L
L
O
12/01
4
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
5
W
W
U
09/29
7
W
L
U
10/07
13
W
W
U
10/20
10
W
W
U
10/27
7
W
L
O
11/04
6
W
L
O
11/10
2
W
L
U
11/17
-9
L
L
O
11/24
3
W
L
O
11/29
2
W
L
U