LACChargers
-
20
TBD
FedExField
81°F
4 mph
16
WASCommanders
-
TBD
FedExField
81°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
6
0
7
20
Commanders
3
6
7
0
16
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
259
Total Plays
78
49
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.10
Passing Yards
334
133
Comp/Att
31/47(66%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.03
Rushing Yards
90
126
Rush Attempts
29
27
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
15
Passing 1st downs
20
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
74%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
14
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
10
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.30
-6.02
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-3
-2
Sack EPA
-7.04
-1.23
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
94
57
Penalty EPA
-7.70
-6.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model57.8%
Spread Pick
Commanders-1.5
Expected Value
+15.3%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+84.5
Base HFA
+44.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
+24.1
Net QB Adjustment
+19.3
Home QB Adjustment
+24.8
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
-4.0
Final Difference
54.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
25
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8
EPA
EPA / Play
7
27
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
16
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
10
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
4
22
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Commanders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
23
Rushing Yards / Game
11
30
EPA
EPA / Play
21
25
EPA / Pass
25
17
EPA / Rush
14
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
27
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
20
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
1
RZ Efficiency
26
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U