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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ commanders week 1, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
-
20
TBD
FedExField
81°F
4 mph
16
WASCommanders
-
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
81°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
6
0
7
20
Commanders
3
6
7
0
16

Spread

LAC logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
424
259
Total Plays
78
49
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.10
Passing Yards
334
133
Comp/Att
31/47(66%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.03
Rushing Yards
90
126
Rush Attempts
29
27
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
27
15
Passing 1st downs
20
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
74%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
14
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
10
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.30
-6.02
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-3
-2
Sack EPA
-7.04
-1.23
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
94
57
Penalty EPA
-7.70
-6.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model57.7%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders-1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+15.3%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+84.7
Base HFA
+44.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
+24.1
Net QB Adjustment
+19.3
Home QB Adjustment
+24.8
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
-3.9
Final Difference
54.0
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Value
Ptile
11/01
2.2
61
11/08
3.8
72
11/15
-1.0
37
11/22
6.8
88
11/29
-2.5
26
12/06
-10.4
3
12/13
2.3
61
12/17
6.1
84
12/27
0.7
50
01/03
6.1
84
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.8
Value
Ptile
12/15
0.6
56
12/22
5.3
84
12/29
8.1
93
09/13
-4.9
16
09/20
5.2
78
09/24
6.2
84
10/04
1.7
56
10/11
8.6
93
10/18
-2.6
26
11/29
-2.6
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Chargers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
5
25
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8

EPA

EPA / Play
7
27
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
16
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
10
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
4
22
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Commanders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Commanders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
23
Rushing Yards / Game
11
30

EPA

EPA / Play
21
25
EPA / Pass
25
17
EPA / Rush
14
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
27
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
20
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
1
RZ Efficiency
26
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-1
L
L
O
11/08
-5
L
L
O
11/15
-8
L
L
O
11/22
6
W
L
O
11/29
-10
L
L
U
12/06
-45
L
L
U
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
W
O
12/27
3
W
W
U
01/03
17
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-3
L
L
P
11/15
-3
L
L
O
11/22
11
W
W
U
11/26
25
W
W
O
12/07
6
W
W
U
12/13
8
W
W
U
12/20
-5
L
W
U
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
6
W
L
U
01/09
-8
L
W
O