LACChargers
10-7
30
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
37°F
4 mph
31
JAXJaguars
9-8
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
37°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
17
10
3
0
30
Jaguars
0
7
13
11
31
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
392
Total Plays
69
71
Yards / Play
4.6
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.00
Passing Yards
253
273
Comp/Att
25/43(58%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.13
Rushing Yards
67
119
Rush Attempts
23
22
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.67
-16.50
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-20
-15
Sack EPA
-1.50
-3.20
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
42
30
Penalty EPA
-5.83
-3.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+34.1
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
-22.6
Net QB Adjustment
+39.0
Home QB Adjustment
+24.9
Away QB Adjustment
-14.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-14.0
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
14
Yards / Game
8
24
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
17
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
29
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
18
25
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
23
Yards / Game
7
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
27
EPA
EPA / Play
7
14
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
14
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
16
Interceptions / Game
13
5
Fumbles / Game
30
27
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
11
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U