LACChargers
13-4
28
TBD
Gillette Stadium
26°F
3 mph
41
NEPatriots
11-5
TBD
Gillette Stadium
26°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
0
7
14
28
Patriots
14
21
3
3
41
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
498
Total Plays
65
78
Yards / Play
5.2
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.27
Passing Yards
318
--
Comp/Att
25/53(47%)
34/44(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.32
Rushing Yards
19
155
Rush Attempts
10
34
Yards / Rush
1.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
30
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.61
+4.41
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-2.11
--
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
33
75
Penalty EPA
-5.79
-10.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
Patriots-4.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+198
Home nfelo
1,668
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+125.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+31.1
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-3.2
Away QB Adjustment
-16.6
Market Regression
-3.0
Final Difference
156.0
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
6
Yards / Game
13
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7
EPA
EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
4
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10
EPA
EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
6
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
8
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
19
4th Down Efficiency
19
23
RZ Efficiency
10
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U