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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ patriots week 19, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
13-4
28
TBD
Gillette Stadium
26°F
3 mph
41
NEPatriots
11-5
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
26°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
0
7
14
28
Patriots
14
21
3
3
41

Spread

NE logo
-4

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
337
498
Total Plays
65
78
Yards / Play
5.2
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.27
Passing Yards
318
--
Comp/Att
25/53(47%)
34/44(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.32
Rushing Yards
19
155
Rush Attempts
10
34
Yards / Rush
1.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
22
30
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.61
+4.41
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-2.11
--
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
33
75
Penalty EPA
-5.79
-10.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model71.2%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,667
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+127.2
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
+31.4
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-3.2
Away QB Adjustment
-16.6
Market Regression
-2.9
Final Difference
156.9
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
Value
Ptile
11/04
0.1
47
11/11
-0.4
43
11/18
1.5
57
11/25
6.6
88
12/02
5.3
82
12/09
-0.9
40
12/13
-2.9
28
12/22
-8.4
7
12/30
-3.8
23
01/06
-0.1
46
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Value
Ptile
10/21
5.1
81
10/29
2.1
63
11/04
0.6
50
11/11
-4.7
20
11/25
4.6
78
12/02
4.9
79
12/09
5.5
83
12/16
1.5
57
12/23
-6.0
13
12/30
6.4
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Chargers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
6
6
Yards / Game
13
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7

EPA

EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
9
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Patriots logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
4
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10

EPA

EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
6
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
8
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
19
4th Down Efficiency
19
23
RZ Efficiency
10
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
8
W
W
U
11/11
14
W
W
U
11/18
-1
L
L
U
11/25
35
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
5
W
L
U
12/13
1
W
W
O
12/22
-12
L
L
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
01/06
6
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
7
W
W
O
10/29
19
W
W
U
11/04
14
W
W
U
11/11
-24
L
L
U
11/25
14
W
W
U
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-1
L
L
O
12/16
-7
L
L
U
12/23
12
W
L
U
12/30
35
W
W
U