LACChargers
10-6
34
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
020
OAKRaiders
4-12
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
14
3
14
34
Raiders
3
7
3
7
20
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
475
264
Total Plays
73
48
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.01
Passing Yards
338
--
Comp/Att
28/37(76%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.10
Rushing Yards
137
39
Rush Attempts
35
12
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.09
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-3.56
--
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-3.13
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-160
Home nfelo
1,411
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+35.0
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
-39.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
A. O'Connell
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
25
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
16
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
12
EPA
EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
19
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
2
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
32
14
EPA
EPA / Play
31
4
EPA / Pass
24
4
EPA / Rush
32
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
29
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
25
RZ Efficiency
26
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U