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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ raiders week 18, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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LAC logo
LACChargers
10-6
34
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
20
OAKRaiders
4-12
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
14
3
14
34
Raiders
3
7
3
7
20

Spread

LAC logo
-7

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
475
264
Total Plays
73
48
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.01
Passing Yards
338
--
Comp/Att
28/37(76%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.10
Rushing Yards
137
39
Rush Attempts
35
12
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.09
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-3.56
--
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-3.13
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-164
Home nfelo
1,409
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+34.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.3
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
-39.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
10/27
4.7
79
11/03
-0.6
45
11/10
4.0
75
11/17
3.6
73
11/25
-0.9
43
12/01
-9.1
3
12/08
-0.8
43
12/15
-4.3
21
12/19
3.9
74
12/28
7.9
92
A. O'Connell headshot

A. O'Connell

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
12/14
5.0
81
12/25
-8.4
7
12/31
3.3
71
01/07
1.1
56
10/13
0.2
50
10/20
-5.6
14
11/29
3.1
71
12/08
-6.9
9
12/22
-3.4
25
12/29
1.1
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
13
25
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
16
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
12

EPA

EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
19
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
2
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
32
14

EPA

EPA / Play
31
4
EPA / Pass
24
4
EPA / Rush
32
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
29
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
25
RZ Efficiency
26
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
18
W
W
U
11/03
17
W
W
U
11/10
10
W
W
O
11/17
7
W
W
O
11/25
-7
L
L
O
12/01
4
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
W
U
12/15
-23
L
L
O
12/19
7
W
W
O
12/28
33
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
-5
L
W
U
10/27
-7
L
W
O
11/03
-17
L
L
O
11/17
-15
L
L
O
11/24
-10
L
L
O
11/29
-2
L
W
U
12/08
-15
L
L
U
12/16
-6
L
W
U
12/22
5
W
W
U
12/29
15
W
W
U