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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ ravens week 18, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAC logo
LACChargers
12-4
23
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
52°F
12 mph
17
BALRavens
10-6
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
52°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
6
0
11
23
Ravens
0
0
3
14
17

Spread

LAC logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
245
229
Total Plays
67
59
Yards / Play
3.7
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.38
Passing Yards
156
139
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
14/29(48%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.19
Rushing Yards
89
90
Rush Attempts
33
23
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
14
11
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
35%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.72
-10.74
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-6
-55
Sack EPA
-1.18
-12.29
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
35
41
Penalty EPA
-3.39
-6.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+90.0
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.4
Net QB Adjustment
-2.3
Home QB Adjustment
-19.1
Away QB Adjustment
-16.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
Value
Ptile
10/21
4.1
75
11/04
0.1
47
11/11
-0.4
43
11/18
1.5
57
11/25
6.6
88
12/02
5.3
82
12/09
-0.9
40
12/13
-2.9
28
12/22
-8.4
7
12/30
-3.8
23
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
Value
Ptile
11/18
-1.9
33
11/25
-0.0
46
12/02
-1.3
37
12/09
0.6
51
12/16
0.7
51
12/22
-1.5
36
12/30
4.4
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Chargers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
6
2
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
5
2
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3

EPA

EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
9
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
21
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
7
24
Turnover EPA / Game
26
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
9
21
Ravens Offense vs Chargers Defense
Ravens logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
11
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
8
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10

EPA

EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
10
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
20
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
1
W
L
U
11/04
8
W
W
U
11/11
14
W
W
U
11/18
-1
L
L
U
11/25
35
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
5
W
L
U
12/13
1
W
W
O
12/22
-12
L
L
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
-1
L
L
U
10/28
-15
L
L
O
11/04
-7
L
L
U
11/18
3
W
L
O
11/25
17
W
W
O
12/02
10
W
W
U
12/09
-3
L
W
O
12/16
8
W
L
U
12/22
12
W
W
U
12/30
2
W
L
O