LACChargers
12-4
23
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
52°F
12 mph
17
BALRavens
10-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
52°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
6
0
11
23
Ravens
0
0
3
14
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
229
Total Plays
67
59
Yards / Play
3.7
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.38
Passing Yards
156
139
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
14/29(48%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.19
Rushing Yards
89
90
Rush Attempts
33
23
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
11
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
35%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.72
-10.74
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-6
-55
Sack EPA
-1.18
-12.29
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
35
41
Penalty EPA
-3.39
-6.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,614
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+89.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.1
Net QB Adjustment
-2.3
Home QB Adjustment
-19.1
Away QB Adjustment
-16.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
2
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
5
2
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
9
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
21
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
7
24
Turnover EPA / Game
26
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
9
21
Ravens Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
11
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
8
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10
EPA
EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
10
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
20
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U