LACChargers
11-6
12
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
032
HOUTexans
10-7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
0
0
6
12
Texans
0
10
4
10
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
261
429
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
4.8
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.53
-0.11
Passing Yards
211
261
Comp/Att
14/32(44%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.72
-0.15
Rushing Yards
50
168
Rush Attempts
18
34
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-23.54
-14.39
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-31
-21
Sack EPA
-6.59
-5.44
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
10
86
Penalty EPA
-0.65
-8.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,610
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-41.6
Home QB Adjustment
-27.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-27.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
20
2
Passing Yards / Game
16
11
Rushing Yards / Game
20
9
EPA
EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
19
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
3
17
Turnover EPA / Game
29
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
3
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
18
21
Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
17
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
14
EPA
EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
26
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
21
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
28
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U