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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ texans week 19, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAC logo
LACChargers
11-6
12
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
32
HOUTexans
10-7
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
0
0
6
12
Texans
0
10
4
10
24

Spread

HOU logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
261
429
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
4.8
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.53
-0.11
Passing Yards
211
261
Comp/Att
14/32(44%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.72
-0.15
Rushing Yards
50
168
Rush Attempts
18
34
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-23.54
-14.39
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-31
-21
Sack EPA
-6.59
-5.44
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
10
86
Penalty EPA
-0.65
-8.17

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-83
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+31.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-41.7
Home QB Adjustment
-27.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Value
Ptile
11/03
-0.5
45
11/10
4.0
75
11/17
3.7
73
11/25
-0.9
43
12/01
-9.0
3
12/08
-0.8
43
12/15
-4.3
21
12/19
3.9
74
12/28
7.9
92
01/05
10.1
96
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-27.1
Value
Ptile
10/20
-8.9
4
10/27
-0.2
48
10/31
-8.2
5
11/10
-7.2
8
11/18
0.4
51
11/24
-4.3
21
12/01
-2.2
33
12/15
-3.7
24
12/21
-1.0
41
12/25
-8.4
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Chargers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
20
2
Passing Yards / Game
16
11
Rushing Yards / Game
20
9

EPA

EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
19
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
3
17
Turnover EPA / Game
29
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
3
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
18
21
Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Texans logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
17
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
14

EPA

EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
26
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
21
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
28
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
17
W
W
U
11/10
10
W
W
O
11/17
7
W
W
O
11/25
-7
L
L
O
12/01
4
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
W
U
12/15
-23
L
L
O
12/19
7
W
W
O
12/28
33
W
W
O
01/05
14
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
3
W
L
U
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/10
-3
L
W
U
11/18
24
W
W
O
11/24
-5
L
L
O
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/25
-29
L
L
U
01/05
9
W
W
O