KCChiefs
12-6
27
TBD
New Era Field
25°F
11 mph
24
BUFBills
12-6
TBD
New Era Field
25°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
10
7
7
27
Bills
3
14
7
0
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
361
368
Total Plays
47
78
Yards / Play
7.7
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
17/23(74%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.15
Rushing Yards
146
182
Rush Attempts
24
39
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
20%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
5
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.71
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
15
28
Penalty EPA
-1.37
-3.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model63.2%
Spread Pick
Bills-2.5
Expected Value
+12.4%
Cover Probability
58.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,713
Away nfelo
1,667
Home Field
+54.0
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+26.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
-11.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
93.9
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-11.2
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
3
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
13
Rushing Yards / Game
17
15
EPA
EPA / Play
10
11
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
16
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
32
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
21
3
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
15
RZ Efficiency
20
18
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
2
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
5
17
EPA
EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
6
4
EPA / Rush
1
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
31
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
22
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
5
4th Down Efficiency
7
19
RZ Efficiency
4
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U