KCChiefs
4-2
30
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
75°F
6 mph
6
DENBroncos
2-4
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
75°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
10
4
7
3
24
Broncos
6
0
0
0
6
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
205
Total Plays
58
65
Yards / Play
4.7
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.48
Passing Yards
191
134
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
3.9
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.69
Rushing Yards
80
71
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.66
Sacks
1
9
Sack Yards
-2
-79
Sack EPA
-1.21
-22.20
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
46
33
Penalty EPA
-6.80
-3.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-97
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+56.9
Base HFA
+52.9
Divisional Adj
-23.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.4
Time Adj
+9.4
Net QB Adjustment
-22.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.2
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+16.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
4
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
6
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16
EPA
EPA / Play
2
15
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
7
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
14
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
15
RZ Efficiency
11
1
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
28
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
15
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
16
EPA / Pass
25
9
EPA / Rush
18
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
4
24
Turnover EPA / Game
26
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
17
RZ Efficiency
27
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U