KCChiefs
5-1
43
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
14°F
11 mph
16
DENBroncos
2-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
14°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
10
8
6
13
37
Broncos
6
3
0
7
16
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
286
411
Total Plays
51
76
Yards / Play
5.6
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.27
Passing Yards
185
234
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.46
Rushing Yards
101
177
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
0%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
--
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.14
-22.93
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-28
-20
Sack EPA
-6.79
-3.03
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
34
Penalty EPA
--
-5.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model76.9%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-7.0
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-246
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,698
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-26.6
Home QB Adjustment
-7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
+14.2
Final Difference
-208.7
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
P. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25
EPA
EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
9
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
20
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
12
4th Down Efficiency
11
12
RZ Efficiency
19
1
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
30
12
EPA / Rush
26
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
23
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
32
29
RZ Efficiency
27
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U