KCChiefs
15-1
0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
28°F
5 mph
38
DENBroncos
9-7
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
28°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
0
0
0
0
Broncos
14
10
7
7
38
Spread
-10.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
98
479
Total Plays
33
72
Yards / Play
3.0
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.46
+0.38
Passing Yards
71
--
Comp/Att
10/17(59%)
26/29(90%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.60
+0.90
Rushing Yards
27
158
Rush Attempts
11
43
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
5
29
Passing 1st downs
4
15
Rushing 1st downs
--
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
11%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
1
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-7.96
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
15
41
Penalty EPA
-0.82
-1.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model78.7%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+10.5
Expected Value
+11.3%
Cover Probability
58.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,647
Home Field
+28.4
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+121.4
Home QB Adjustment
+22.7
Away QB Adjustment
-98.8
Market Regression
+19.2
Final Difference
227.3
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-98.8
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+22.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
19
10
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5
EPA
EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
12
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
15
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
6
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
16
EPA / Pass
16
25
EPA / Rush
15
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
15
Interceptions / Game
15
17
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U