KCChiefs
-
21
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
027
LACChargers
-
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
6
6
9
21
Chargers
7
6
7
7
27
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
394
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
5.9
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.28
Passing Yards
249
304
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.52
Rushing Yards
98
90
Rush Attempts
17
25
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.52
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-9
-14
Sack EPA
-1.99
-4.09
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
71
49
Penalty EPA
-10.72
-2.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-68
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
-3.5
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.8
Net QB Adjustment
-8.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
11
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
6
4
EPA / Rush
3
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
5
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
1
32
Turnover EPA / Game
26
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
18
RZ Efficiency
7
8
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
4
Yards / Game
11
7
Passing Yards / Game
2
25
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9
EPA
EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
22
12
EPA / Rush
11
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
25
17
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
23
4th Down Efficiency
9
1
RZ Efficiency
26
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U