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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ chargers week 18, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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KC logo
KCChiefs
10-6
13
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
12
LACChargers
5-11
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
1
3
0
3
7
Chargers
0
6
3
3
12

Spread

KC logo
+3

Total

UNDER
35

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
268
353
Total Plays
59
80
Yards / Play
4.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.18
Passing Yards
145
235
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.31
-0.32
Rushing Yards
123
118
Rush Attempts
28
30
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
37%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
19
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.11
-11.64
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-23
Sack EPA
-2.18
-14.37
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
57
--
Penalty EPA
-4.38
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model52.6%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.8%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,647
Home Field
+49.6
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+99.4
Home QB Adjustment
-76.2
Away QB Adjustment
-175.7
Market Regression
+10.2
Final Difference
18.1
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-175.7
Value
Ptile
10/02
-1.5
37
10/06
-5.3
14
11/19
0.1
53
11/26
2.7
71
12/03
-9.7
3
12/10
-8.8
5
12/17
-11.1
2
09/16
-2.9
28
09/23
-8.1
8
12/30
-4.1
21
E. Stick headshot

E. Stick

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-76.2
Value
Ptile
12/14
1.9
63
12/23
-0.1
48
12/31
0.8
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16

EPA

EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
13
24
EPA / Rush
16
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
21
25
Fumbles / Game
21
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
20
12
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
18
5
Passing Yards / Game
17
11
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17

EPA

EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
31
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
5
4th Down Efficiency
23
19
RZ Efficiency
13
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
14
W
W
U
10/29
-15
L
L
U
11/05
7
W
W
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/26
14
W
W
O
12/03
-8
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
L
U
12/17
10
W
P
O
12/25
-6
L
L
U
12/31
8
W
W
U
LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
17
W
W
U
11/06
21
W
W
U
11/12
-3
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
-10
L
L
U
12/03
6
W
W
U
12/10
-17
L
L
U
12/14
-42
L
L
O
12/23
-2
L
W
O
12/31
-7
L
L
U