KCChiefs
10-6
13
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
012
LACChargers
5-11
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
1
3
0
3
7
Chargers
0
6
3
3
12
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
35
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
353
Total Plays
59
80
Yards / Play
4.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.18
Passing Yards
145
235
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.31
-0.32
Rushing Yards
123
118
Rush Attempts
28
30
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
37%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
19
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.11
-11.64
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-23
Sack EPA
-2.18
-14.37
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
57
--
Penalty EPA
-4.38
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+3.0
Expected Value
+8.8%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-25
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,655
Home Field
+49.6
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+100.6
Home QB Adjustment
-75.4
Away QB Adjustment
-176.0
Market Regression
+15.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-176.0
E. Stick
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-75.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16
EPA
EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
13
24
EPA / Rush
16
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
21
25
Fumbles / Game
21
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
20
12
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
18
5
Passing Yards / Game
17
11
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17
EPA
EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
31
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
5
4th Down Efficiency
23
19
RZ Efficiency
13
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chargers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U