KCChiefs
-
40
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
91°F
6 mph
26
JAXJaguars
-
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
91°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
17
6
7
10
40
Jaguars
7
6
0
13
26
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
491
428
Total Plays
60
51
Yards / Play
8.2
8.4
EPA / Play
+0.42
+0.13
Passing Yards
--
347
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
27/34(79%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.2
EPA / Pass
+0.68
+0.32
Rushing Yards
113
81
Rush Attempts
26
16
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.01
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-1.04
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
55
71
Penalty EPA
-7.95
-7.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model61.2%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+7.4
Home QB Adjustment
+14.4
Away QB Adjustment
+7.0
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
-78.8
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
4
25
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
28
EPA
EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
7
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
15
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
14
25
Turnover EPA / Game
29
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
23
4th Down Efficiency
3
12
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
20
17
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25
EPA
EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
22
9
EPA / Rush
16
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
28
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
30
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
10
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
31
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
2-6-2
ATS
3-7
O/U