KCChiefs
6-3
32
TBD
Nissan Stadium
63°F
9 mph
35
TENTitans
4-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
63°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
10
3
9
10
32
Titans
0
7
7
15
29
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
530
373
Total Plays
78
50
Yards / Play
6.8
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.14
Passing Yards
433
146
Comp/Att
36/51(71%)
13/19(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.14
Rushing Yards
97
227
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
3.9
8.4
EPA / Rush
-0.44
+0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
20
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.97
-5.56
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-35
Sack EPA
-3.48
-11.69
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
80
64
Penalty EPA
-9.30
-6.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model64.9%
Spread Pick
Titans+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+67.4
Base HFA
+50.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
-1.5
Final Difference
-106.7
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13
EPA
EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
7
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
5
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
14
11
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
11
26
Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
10
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
4
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
28
Interceptions / Game
6
4
Fumbles / Game
3
24
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
1
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U