nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ bears week 4, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

IND logo
INDColts
2-1
19
TBD
Soldier Field
52°F
10 mph
11
CHIBears
3-0
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
52°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
3
3
19
Bears
0
3
0
8
11

Spread

IND logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
289
271
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
4.3
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.15
Passing Yards
186
241
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.11
Rushing Yards
103
30
Rush Attempts
38
17
Yards / Rush
2.7
1.8
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
42%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
14
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.85
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-8
Sack EPA
-0.13
-1.45
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
76
103
Penalty EPA
-8.94
-9.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-83
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Value
Ptile
11/07
-12.0
2
11/18
-6.9
12
12/01
0.2
53
12/08
6.5
89
12/15
-2.5
34
12/22
-0.4
50
12/29
0.1
53
09/13
4.1
74
09/20
-1.3
34
09/27
2.3
62
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
09/16
3.2
71
12/16
1.6
58
12/23
11.7
98
12/30
1.9
61
01/06
1.1
54
01/13
-1.9
33
09/08
-3.2
30
11/17
2.4
69
11/24
0.1
52
12/01
-10.4
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Bears Defense
Colts logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
7
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
14

EPA

EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
15
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
17
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Bears Offense vs Colts Defense
Bears logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
28
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2

EPA

EPA / Play
22
8
EPA / Pass
24
9
EPA / Rush
20
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
9
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
6
RZ Efficiency
21
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
20
W
W
O
11/21
-3
L
W
U
12/01
-14
L
L
O
12/08
-3
L
P
O
12/16
-27
L
L
U
12/22
32
W
W
U
12/29
-18
L
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
O
09/20
17
W
W
U
09/27
29
W
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
5
W
L
U
11/28
4
W
L
O
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/22
-23
L
L
U
12/29
2
W
L
O
09/13
4
W
W
O
09/20
4
W
L
U
09/27
4
W
W
O