INDColts
2-1
19
TBD
Soldier Field
52°F
10 mph
11
CHIBears
3-0
TBD
Soldier Field
52°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
3
3
19
Bears
0
3
0
8
11
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
271
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
4.3
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.15
Passing Yards
186
241
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.11
Rushing Yards
103
30
Rush Attempts
38
17
Yards / Rush
2.7
1.8
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
42%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
14
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.85
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-8
Sack EPA
-0.13
-1.45
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
76
103
Penalty EPA
-8.94
-9.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-86
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
7
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
14
EPA
EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
15
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
17
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Bears Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
28
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2
EPA
EPA / Play
22
8
EPA / Pass
24
9
EPA / Rush
20
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
9
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
6
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U