INDColts
11-5
24
TBD
New Era Field
34°F
6 mph
27
BUFBills
13-3
TBD
New Era Field
34°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
7
0
14
24
Bills
7
7
3
10
27
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
474
397
Total Plays
78
58
Yards / Play
6.1
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.23
Passing Yards
--
301
Comp/Att
27/47(57%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.29
Rushing Yards
163
96
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
17
16
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
53%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-3.12
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
10
7
Penalty EPA
-2.06
-1.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
Colts+7.0
Expected Value
+8.1%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,630
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+40.0
Home QB Adjustment
+43.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+4.0
Final Difference
127.7
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+43.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
7
18
Passing Yards / Game
22
13
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20
EPA
EPA / Play
9
16
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
15
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
16
RZ Efficiency
20
17
Bills Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
11
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
3
9
EPA / Rush
16
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
31
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
22
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
1
6
RZ Efficiency
12
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-3-1
O/U