nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ bills week 18, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

IND logo
INDColts
11-5
24
TBD
New Era Field
34°F
6 mph
27
BUFBills
13-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
34°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
7
0
14
24
Bills
7
7
3
10
27

Spread

IND logo
+7

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
474
397
Total Plays
78
58
Yards / Play
6.1
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.23
Passing Yards
--
301
Comp/Att
27/47(57%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.29
Rushing Yards
163
96
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
17
16
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
53%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-3.12
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
10
7
Penalty EPA
-2.06
-1.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.1%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+40.0
Home QB Adjustment
+43.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+4.3
Final Difference
130.5
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
11/01
2.4
62
11/08
-1.8
30
11/12
3.4
69
11/22
3.9
73
11/29
-1.8
30
12/06
1.6
55
12/13
2.5
63
12/20
1.9
58
12/27
-1.9
30
01/03
-5.2
15
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+43.1
Value
Ptile
10/25
4.1
74
11/01
-1.6
32
11/08
6.2
85
11/15
2.1
59
11/29
-1.5
34
12/07
12.2
98
12/13
3.2
68
12/19
13.0
99
12/28
13.5
99
01/03
2.1
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Bills Defense
Colts logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
7
18
Passing Yards / Game
22
13
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20

EPA

EPA / Play
9
16
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
15
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
16
RZ Efficiency
20
17
Bills Offense vs Colts Defense
Bills logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
3
11
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2

EPA

EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
3
9
EPA / Rush
16
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
31
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
22
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
1
6
RZ Efficiency
12
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
20
W
W
O
11/08
-14
L
L
U
11/12
17
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/29
-19
L
L
O
12/06
6
W
W
U
12/13
17
W
W
O
12/20
7
W
L
U
12/27
-4
L
L
O
01/03
14
W
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
8
W
L
U
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/08
10
W
W
O
11/15
-2
L
W
O
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
O
12/13
11
W
W
U
12/19
29
W
W
O
12/28
29
W
W
P
01/03
30
W
W
O