INDColts
3-1
23
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
64°F
16 mph
32
CLEBrowns
3-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
64°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
3
10
3
23
Browns
3
17
1
3
24
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
385
Total Plays
52
72
Yards / Play
5.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.09
Passing Yards
240
261
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.11
Rushing Yards
68
124
Rush Attempts
18
33
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.91
-8.51
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-4
Sack EPA
-1.07
-1.12
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
34
--
Penalty EPA
-5.10
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model43.1%
Spread Pick
Colts+1.0
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-99
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
-0.5
Final Difference
-48.0
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
22
Yards / Game
7
21
Passing Yards / Game
22
24
Rushing Yards / Game
9
9
EPA
EPA / Play
9
22
EPA / Pass
7
23
EPA / Rush
15
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
20
16
Browns Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
11
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2
EPA
EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
10
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
31
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U