INDColts
0-3
27
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
16 mph
17
MIADolphins
1-2
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
10
10
27
Dolphins
3
0
0
14
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
203
Total Plays
67
49
Yards / Play
5.2
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.05
Passing Yards
210
168
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.02
Rushing Yards
139
35
Rush Attempts
33
16
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+5.37
-0.59
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-31
Sack EPA
-3.77
-8.74
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
86
32
Penalty EPA
-1.00
-7.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-17.3
Market Regression
+7.2
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.3
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
15
Yards / Game
16
16
Passing Yards / Game
18
18
Rushing Yards / Game
2
13
EPA
EPA / Play
8
11
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
2
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
12
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
23
RZ Efficiency
19
7
Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
27
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
12
EPA
EPA / Play
22
12
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
29
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
14
3
Fumbles / Game
25
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
18
4th Down Efficiency
15
18
RZ Efficiency
15
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U