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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ dolphins week 4, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
0-3
27
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
16 mph
17
MIADolphins
1-2
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
10
10
27
Dolphins
3
0
0
14
17

Spread

IND logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
349
203
Total Plays
67
49
Yards / Play
5.2
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.05
Passing Yards
210
168
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.02
Rushing Yards
139
35
Rush Attempts
33
16
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+5.37
-0.59
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-31
Sack EPA
-3.77
-8.74
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
86
32
Penalty EPA
-1.00
-7.17

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-17.3
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-17.3
Value
Ptile
10/18
0.4
49
10/22
2.1
60
11/01
-8.9
5
11/15
-5.4
14
11/22
-6.8
9
11/30
-6.2
10
12/06
-8.9
4
09/12
2.2
69
09/19
0.4
55
09/26
-6.8
11
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
10/27
-2.6
34
11/03
-4.9
20
11/17
-2.7
34
11/21
-2.5
35
12/01
-3.4
28
12/08
1.1
60
12/16
-4.3
24
12/22
-2.9
32
12/29
-6.5
14
09/26
1.1
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Colts logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
8
15
Yards / Game
16
16
Passing Yards / Game
18
18
Rushing Yards / Game
2
13

EPA

EPA / Play
8
11
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
2
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
12
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
23
RZ Efficiency
19
7
Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Dolphins logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
27
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
12

EPA

EPA / Play
22
12
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
29
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
14
3
Fumbles / Game
25
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
18
4th Down Efficiency
15
18
RZ Efficiency
15
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-19
L
L
O
12/06
6
W
W
U
12/13
17
W
W
O
12/20
7
W
L
U
12/27
-4
L
L
O
01/03
14
W
L
U
01/09
-3
L
W
O
09/12
-12
L
L
U
09/19
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-9
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-7
L
L
U
11/29
17
W
W
U
12/06
12
W
W
U
12/13
-6
L
W
O
12/20
10
W
W
U
12/26
1
W
L
O
01/03
-30
L
L
O
09/12
1
W
W
U
09/19
-35
L
L
U
09/26
-3
L
W
O