INDColts
7-8
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
038
JAXJaguars
5-10
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
10
0
0
20
Jaguars
3
13
8
8
32
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
275
355
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
5.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.18
Passing Yards
143
288
Comp/Att
12/25(48%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.25
Rushing Yards
132
67
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.86
-4.37
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-19
-9
Sack EPA
-8.18
-0.64
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
36
27
Penalty EPA
-5.58
-4.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-127
Home nfelo
1,383
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+41.0
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-37.6
Home QB Adjustment
-40.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-40.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
2
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
12
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
18
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
5
EPA
EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
16
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
30
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
10
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U