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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ jaguars week 17, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
7-8
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0
38
JAXJaguars
5-10
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
10
0
0
20
Jaguars
3
13
8
8
32

Spread

JAX logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
275
355
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
5.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.18
Passing Yards
143
288
Comp/Att
12/25(48%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.25
Rushing Yards
132
67
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.86
-4.37
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-19
-9
Sack EPA
-8.18
-0.64
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
36
27
Penalty EPA
-5.58
-4.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-127
Home nfelo
1,381
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+41.1
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-37.6
Home QB Adjustment
-40.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
10/06
-2.2
37
10/20
7.0
90
10/27
-2.6
34
11/03
-4.9
20
11/17
-2.7
34
11/21
-2.5
35
12/01
-3.4
28
12/08
1.1
60
12/16
-4.3
24
12/22
-2.9
32
G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-40.2
Value
Ptile
09/19
4.2
80
09/29
-3.5
28
10/06
6.8
89
10/13
-9.0
6
10/20
-1.9
39
10/27
3.9
78
11/03
-5.2
18
12/08
-0.3
51
12/15
-1.1
46
12/22
-5.8
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
28

EPA

EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
2
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
12
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
26
18
Yards / Game
19
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
5

EPA

EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
17
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
30
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
10
RZ Efficiency
31
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
7
W
W
O
10/27
2
W
L
U
11/03
-2
L
L
O
11/10
-4
L
L
U
11/17
20
W
W
O
11/21
-3
L
W
U
12/01
-14
L
L
O
12/08
-3
L
P
O
12/16
-27
L
L
U
12/22
32
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-7
L
L
U
10/20
10
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
O
11/03
-23
L
L
U
11/17
-20
L
L
O
11/24
-22
L
L
O
12/01
-17
L
L
U
12/08
-35
L
L
O
12/15
4
W
W
U
12/22
-12
L
L
U