INDColts
1-4
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
7 mph
42
NYJJets
2-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
7
14
34
Jets
4
13
10
9
36
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
374
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.03
Passing Yards
--
267
Comp/Att
23/43(53%)
24/30(80%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.28
Rushing Yards
127
107
Rush Attempts
23
36
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
60%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-23.29
-8.68
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-2.32
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
66
49
Penalty EPA
-7.47
-5.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+56.9
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-48.5
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+35.2
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+35.2
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
29
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
16
26
EPA
EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
18
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
19
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
21
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
2
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
7
9
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
29
11
Passing Yards / Game
23
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
27
6
EPA / Rush
31
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
29
13
Fumbles / Game
22
12
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
18
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
30
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U