INDColts
5-6
41
TBD
MetLife Stadium
45°F
6 mph
10
NYJJets
3-8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
45°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
14
10
10
7
41
Jets
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
250
Total Plays
70
52
Yards / Play
6.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.42
Passing Yards
282
214
Comp/Att
23/29(79%)
16/37(43%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.70
-0.31
Rushing Yards
139
36
Rush Attempts
40
14
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
13
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
54%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.33
-13.18
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-2
Sack EPA
-0.93
-1.16
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
28
90
Penalty EPA
-4.81
-9.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+57.2
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
+3.3
Final Difference
23.8
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
13
EPA
EPA / Play
8
23
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
18
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
19
4th Down Efficiency
22
1
RZ Efficiency
3
21
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
21
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
11
25
EPA
EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
31
25
EPA / Rush
9
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
5
Interceptions / Game
32
29
Fumbles / Game
16
17
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
26
8
RZ Efficiency
32
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U