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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ lions week 8, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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IND logo
INDColts
4-2
41
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
21
DETLions
3-3
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
20
0
15
35
Lions
7
0
7
7
21

Spread

IND logo
-3

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
368
326
Total Plays
76
60
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.26
Passing Yards
247
297
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.17
Rushing Yards
121
29
Rush Attempts
40
13
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-13.93
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-15
-39
Sack EPA
-0.45
-11.54
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
19
76
Penalty EPA
-2.20
-7.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-94
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+1.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.5
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
12/08
6.5
89
12/15
-2.5
34
12/22
-0.4
50
12/29
0.1
53
09/13
4.1
74
09/20
-1.3
34
09/27
2.3
62
10/04
-1.6
31
10/11
-6.1
11
10/18
5.6
81
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Value
Ptile
10/14
-2.8
33
10/20
7.5
92
10/27
2.7
70
11/03
3.4
74
09/13
1.0
51
09/20
-2.2
28
09/27
-0.5
42
10/04
-1.4
34
10/18
-1.6
33
10/25
1.6
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Lions Defense
Colts logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
8
32
Yards / Game
7
32
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
9
28

EPA

EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
7
32
EPA / Rush
15
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
1
27
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Lions Offense vs Colts Defense
Lions logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2

EPA

EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
29
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
12
11
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
6
RZ Efficiency
10
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-3
L
P
O
12/16
-27
L
L
U
12/22
32
W
W
U
12/29
-18
L
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
O
09/20
17
W
W
U
09/27
29
W
W
U
10/04
8
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/18
4
W
L
O
DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-13
L
L
U
12/15
-21
L
L
O
12/22
-10
L
L
O
12/29
-3
L
W
U
09/13
-4
L
L
O
09/20
-21
L
L
O
09/27
3
W
W
U
10/04
-6
L
L
O
10/18
18
W
W
U
10/25
1
W
W
U