INDColts
4-2
41
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
021
DETLions
3-3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
20
0
15
35
Lions
7
0
7
7
21
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
326
Total Plays
76
60
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.26
Passing Yards
247
297
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.17
Rushing Yards
121
29
Rush Attempts
40
13
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-13.93
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-15
-39
Sack EPA
-0.45
-11.54
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
19
76
Penalty EPA
-2.20
-7.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-98
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+1.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.5
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
32
Yards / Game
7
32
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
9
28
EPA
EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
7
32
EPA / Rush
15
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
1
27
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Lions Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
29
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
12
11
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
6
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U