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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ raiders week 8, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
2-5
42
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
69°F
8 mph
28
OAKRaiders
1-5
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
69°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
3
8
21
42
Raiders
0
14
14
0
28

Spread

IND logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
51

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
463
347
Total Plays
72
47
Yards / Play
6.4
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.38
+0.21
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.45
Rushing Yards
222
103
Rush Attempts
40
19
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
69%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.74
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
77
79
Penalty EPA
-6.59
-8.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model52.7%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,387
Away nfelo
1,414
Home Field
+106.4
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-33.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+34.3
Market Regression
-36.8
Final Difference
-19.1
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+34.3
Value
Ptile
12/18
6.7
89
12/24
4.1
79
01/01
0.6
54
09/09
5.3
82
09/16
-1.6
36
09/23
0.3
49
09/30
9.1
94
10/04
4.4
77
10/14
0.9
53
10/21
6.1
85
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Value
Ptile
12/10
-6.8
13
12/17
3.0
74
12/25
-6.8
13
12/31
0.0
52
09/10
-2.2
32
09/16
7.1
90
09/23
-1.0
40
09/30
4.4
76
10/07
-0.2
44
10/14
-4.1
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Colts logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
8
32
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
16
30

EPA

EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
18
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
4
Interceptions / Game
22
14
Fumbles / Game
21
31
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Raiders logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
23
11
Passing Yards / Game
12
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
9

EPA

EPA / Play
26
8
EPA / Pass
21
6
EPA / Rush
29
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
22
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-12
L
L
U
12/23
-7
L
W
U
12/31
9
W
W
U
09/09
-11
L
L
O
09/16
12
W
W
U
09/23
-4
L
W
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
O
10/14
-8
L
L
O
10/21
32
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-11
L
L
U
12/17
-3
L
P
U
12/25
-9
L
W
U
12/31
-20
L
L
U
09/10
-20
L
L
U
09/16
-1
L
W
U
09/23
-8
L
L
O
09/30
3
W
W
O
10/07
-16
L
L
U
10/14
-24
L
L
U