INDColts
2-5
42
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
69°F
8 mph
28
OAKRaiders
1-5
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
69°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
3
8
21
42
Raiders
0
14
14
0
28
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
463
347
Total Plays
72
47
Yards / Play
6.4
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.38
+0.21
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.45
Rushing Yards
222
103
Rush Attempts
40
19
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
69%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.74
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
77
79
Penalty EPA
-6.59
-8.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model52.8%
Spread Pick
Raiders+3.5
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,387
Away nfelo
1,414
Home Field
+105.2
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-33.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+34.3
Market Regression
-37.0
Final Difference
-19.5
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+34.3
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
32
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
16
30
EPA
EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
18
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
4
Interceptions / Game
22
14
Fumbles / Game
21
31
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
23
11
Passing Yards / Game
12
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
9
EPA
EPA / Play
26
8
EPA / Pass
21
6
EPA / Rush
29
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
22
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U