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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ rams week 4, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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IND logo
INDColts
3-0
20
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
27
LARRams
2-1
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
7
0
10
20
Rams
3
10
0
14
27

Spread

LAR logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
333
462
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
5.9
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.00
Passing Yards
248
360
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.35
Rushing Yards
85
102
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.49
-6.51
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-15
Sack EPA
-2.49
-3.86
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
88
63
Penalty EPA
-7.60
-7.98

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+45.7
Base HFA
+38.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-19.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+20.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
Value
Ptile
09/26
0.8
54
10/06
2.9
69
10/13
-3.9
23
10/20
-10.2
2
10/28
-4.7
18
11/03
6.0
85
11/10
-4.8
17
09/07
8.5
95
09/14
5.6
87
09/21
3.8
77
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Value
Ptile
12/01
-1.3
39
12/08
8.3
94
12/12
-0.4
46
12/22
-2.0
35
12/28
-3.0
28
01/13
1.3
58
01/19
0.5
52
09/07
0.3
54
09/14
2.1
65
09/21
-1.0
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Rams Defense
Colts logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
8
10
Yards / Game
10
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13

EPA

EPA / Play
6
6
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
3
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
25
7
Fumbles / Game
19
7
Turnover EPA / Game
9
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
16
RZ Efficiency
3
3
Rams Offense vs Colts Defense
Rams logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
1
22
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6

EPA

EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
3
19
EPA / Rush
12
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
7
10
Fumbles / Game
16
17
Turnover EPA / Game
14
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
8
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
1
W
W
O
11/24
-18
L
L
U
12/01
1
W
L
O
12/15
-18
L
L
P
12/22
8
W
W
O
12/29
-12
L
L
O
01/05
3
W
L
O
09/07
25
W
W
U
09/14
1
W
W
O
09/21
21
W
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
2
W
W
O
12/12
6
W
W
U
12/22
10
W
W
U
12/28
4
W
L
U
01/05
-5
L
W
O
01/13
18
W
W
U
01/19
-6
L
W
O
09/07
5
W
W
U
09/14
14
W
W
O
09/21
-7
L
L
O