INDColts
3-0
20
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
027
LARRams
2-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
7
0
10
20
Rams
3
10
0
14
27
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
462
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
5.9
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.00
Passing Yards
248
360
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.35
Rushing Yards
85
102
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.49
-6.51
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-15
Sack EPA
-2.49
-3.86
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
88
63
Penalty EPA
-7.60
-7.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+45.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-19.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+20.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
1
13
Passing Yards / Game
11
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11
EPA
EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
1
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
3
2
Rams Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
9
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5
EPA
EPA / Play
9
11
EPA / Pass
3
7
EPA / Rush
27
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
2
3
Fumbles / Game
24
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
8
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U