INDColts
-
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
-
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
0
0
17
20
Texans
0
10
10
0
20
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
517
299
Total Plays
90
68
Yards / Play
5.7
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.08
Passing Yards
340
222
Comp/Att
32/50(64%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.17
Rushing Yards
177
77
Rush Attempts
38
28
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
33
20
Passing 1st downs
20
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.18
-5.91
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-18
Sack EPA
-2.89
-8.26
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
89
40
Penalty EPA
-9.83
-4.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model69.7%
Spread Pick
Texans+7.0
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-113
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+13.6
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
-16.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.6
Net QB Adjustment
-1.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-145.0
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
32
EPA
EPA / Play
32
12
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
30
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
14
4th Down Efficiency
23
26
RZ Efficiency
29
19
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
22
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
20
EPA
EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
31
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
31
24
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
3
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
9
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
28
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U