INDColts
6-4
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
6-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
10
7
0
17
Texans
0
10
3
7
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
396
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
4.6
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.04
Passing Yards
121
297
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.25
Rushing Yards
175
99
Rush Attempts
39
24
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
60%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.06
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-1
Sack EPA
-2.16
-0.72
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
27
Penalty EPA
--
-2.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+53.5
Base HFA
+49.6
Divisional Adj
-22.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.3
Time Adj
+8.9
Net QB Adjustment
+2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
25
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
25
Rushing Yards / Game
5
24
EPA
EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
23
25
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
3
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
3
32
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
11
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
18
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5
EPA
EPA / Play
8
17
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
6
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
18
6
Fumbles / Game
17
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
27
4th Down Efficiency
18
10
RZ Efficiency
9
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U