INDColts
0-1
19
TBD
Nissan Stadium
93°F
1 mph
17
TENTitans
1-0
TBD
Nissan Stadium
93°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
0
6
19
Titans
0
7
10
0
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
243
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
4.4
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.12
Passing Yards
121
119
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.14
Rushing Yards
167
124
Rush Attempts
34
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.62
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-25
-35
Sack EPA
-8.56
-6.05
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
65
75
Penalty EPA
-6.15
-7.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+41.4
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+23.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
-20.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-20.7
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
25
22
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
13
EPA
EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
23
16
EPA / Rush
2
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
12
7
Fumbles / Game
22
11
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
16
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
3
26
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
6
17
EPA / Pass
8
21
EPA / Rush
4
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
6
6
Fumbles / Game
3
20
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
10
RZ Efficiency
1
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U