INDColts
2-0
41
TBD
Nissan Stadium
84°F
8 mph
20
TENTitans
0-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
84°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
11
3
14
7
35
Titans
3
3
7
7
20
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
282
Total Plays
53
65
Yards / Play
6.9
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.36
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
196
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.33
Rushing Yards
137
86
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.87
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-5.63
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
23
68
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-8.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-115
Home nfelo
1,357
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+27.8
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-24.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+16.3
Market Regression
-71.1
Final Difference
-139.4
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.3
C. Ward
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
28
Yards / Game
3
25
Passing Yards / Game
11
13
Rushing Yards / Game
8
28
EPA
EPA / Play
2
28
EPA / Pass
4
26
EPA / Rush
5
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
16
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
24
9
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
31
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
8
EPA
EPA / Play
31
15
EPA / Pass
32
12
EPA / Rush
25
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
9
6
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
14
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
10
RZ Efficiency
27
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U