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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ titans week 3, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
2-0
41
TBD
Nissan Stadium
84°F
8 mph
20
TENTitans
0-2
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
84°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
11
3
14
7
35
Titans
3
3
7
7
20

Spread

IND logo
-6

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
365
282
Total Plays
53
65
Yards / Play
6.9
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.36
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
196
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.33
Rushing Yards
137
86
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.87
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-5.63
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
23
68
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-8.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-116
Home nfelo
1,357
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+27.8
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-24.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+16.3
Market Regression
-71.2
Final Difference
-139.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.3
Value
Ptile
09/22
4.0
76
09/26
0.8
54
10/06
2.9
69
10/13
-3.9
23
10/20
-10.2
2
10/28
-4.7
18
11/03
6.0
85
11/10
-4.8
17
09/07
8.5
95
09/14
5.6
87
C. Ward headshot

C. Ward

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Value
Ptile
09/07
-12.0
1
09/14
-5.9
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Colts logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
11
22
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17

EPA

EPA / Play
7
24
EPA / Pass
12
28
EPA / Rush
2
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
5
Interceptions / Game
23
29
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
30
RZ Efficiency
3
26
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Titans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
31
24
Passing Yards / Game
25
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
5

EPA

EPA / Play
30
17
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
28
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
17
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
27
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
20
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
-10
L
L
O
11/17
1
W
W
O
11/24
-18
L
L
U
12/01
1
W
L
O
12/15
-18
L
L
P
12/22
8
W
W
O
12/29
-12
L
L
O
01/05
3
W
L
O
09/07
25
W
W
U
09/14
1
W
W
O
TEN logo

Titans

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
5
W
W
O
12/01
-23
L
L
O
12/08
-4
L
L
U
12/15
-10
L
L
O
12/22
-8
L
L
O
12/29
-7
L
L
U
01/05
-9
L
L
O
09/07
-8
L
W
U
09/14
-14
L
L
O