WASCommanders
5-7
23
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
015
SF49ers
5-7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
4
0
11
49ers
7
0
0
8
15
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
193
346
Total Plays
62
77
Yards / Play
3.1
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.39
Passing Yards
95
238
Comp/Att
15/32(47%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
3.0
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.54
-0.51
Rushing Yards
98
108
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
20%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.18
-26.36
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-24
Sack EPA
-2.81
-14.38
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-5.59
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+2.3
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-55.7
Home QB Adjustment
-20.6
Away QB Adjustment
+35.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+35.0
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-20.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
17
Yards / Game
29
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
26
8
EPA
EPA / Play
27
11
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
11
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
17
6
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
3
4th Down Efficiency
21
25
RZ Efficiency
15
9
49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
5
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
15
EPA
EPA / Play
21
7
EPA / Pass
16
4
EPA / Rush
22
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
30
7
Fumbles / Game
27
4
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
7
4th Down Efficiency
28
2
RZ Efficiency
7
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U