WASCommanders
1-1
21
TBD
New Era Field
67°F
21 mph
43
BUFBills
1-1
TBD
New Era Field
67°F
21 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
14
0
7
21
Bills
7
20
9
7
43
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
481
Total Plays
50
78
Yards / Play
5.8
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.14
Passing Yards
212
--
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
33/45(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.38
Rushing Yards
78
122
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
29
Passing 1st downs
8
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
18%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.23
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
-0.67
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
38
30
Penalty EPA
-6.82
-2.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model79.9%
Spread Pick
Bills-7.0
Expected Value
+25.5%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+302
Home nfelo
1,618
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+58.3
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+109.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-107.3
Market Regression
-25.6
Final Difference
239.8
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-107.3
Value
Ptile
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
1
Yards / Game
21
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
5
Rushing Yards / Game
11
16
EPA
EPA / Play
21
3
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
14
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
32
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
26
10
Bills Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8
EPA
EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
5
25
EPA / Rush
1
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
10
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
10
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
2
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U