WASCommanders
5-3
16
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
3 mph
3
TBBuccaneers
3-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
3
0
10
16
Buccaneers
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
286
501
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
5.2
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.21
Passing Yards
170
398
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
9.7
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.11
Rushing Yards
116
103
Rush Attempts
25
24
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
7
22
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-22.54
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-3.94
-6.57
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
52
50
Penalty EPA
-6.41
-4.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+57.8
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.7
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-9.1
Market Regression
+73.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
31
Yards / Game
28
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
17
24
EPA
EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
12
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
14
Interceptions / Game
23
26
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
22
4th Down Efficiency
17
7
RZ Efficiency
24
32
Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
16
EPA
EPA / Play
12
21
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
26
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
12
Interceptions / Game
32
11
Fumbles / Game
25
10
Turnover EPA / Game
2
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
5
2
RZ Efficiency
15
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U