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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ buccaneers week 10, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
5-3
16
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
3 mph
3
TBBuccaneers
3-5
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
3
0
10
16
Buccaneers
0
3
0
0
3

Spread

WAS logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
51

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
286
501
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
5.2
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.21
Passing Yards
170
398
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
9.7
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.11
Rushing Yards
116
103
Rush Attempts
25
24
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
7
22
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-22.54
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-3.94
-6.57
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
52
50
Penalty EPA
-6.41
-4.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+58.5
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.7
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-9.1
Market Regression
+73.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
Value
Ptile
12/24
3.3
77
01/06
2.5
70
09/09
2.0
62
09/16
1.5
57
09/23
0.3
48
10/08
-2.8
29
10/14
-2.5
31
10/21
-1.2
38
10/28
0.2
48
11/04
-0.5
42
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Value
Ptile
12/05
-7.9
6
01/01
2.3
67
11/12
-4.0
25
11/19
2.3
69
11/26
1.4
62
09/09
16.3
100
09/16
10.1
96
09/24
1.8
60
09/30
-7.3
9
11/04
0.4
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Commanders logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
31
Yards / Game
28
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
17
24

EPA

EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
12
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
14
Interceptions / Game
23
26
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
22
4th Down Efficiency
17
7
RZ Efficiency
24
32
Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
16

EPA

EPA / Play
12
21
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
26
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
12
Interceptions / Game
32
11
Fumbles / Game
25
10
Turnover EPA / Game
2
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
5
2
RZ Efficiency
15
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
16
W
W
U
12/31
-8
L
L
U
09/09
18
W
W
U
09/16
-12
L
L
U
09/23
14
W
W
O
10/08
-24
L
L
O
10/14
6
W
W
U
10/21
3
W
W
U
10/28
7
W
W
U
11/04
-24
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-3
L
W
U
12/31
7
W
W
O
09/09
8
W
W
O
09/16
6
W
W
O
09/24
-3
L
L
O
09/30
-38
L
L
O
10/14
-5
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
L
U
10/28
-3
L
W
O
11/04
-14
L
L
O