WASCommanders
6-4
23
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
031
ARICardinals
4-6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
14
3
23
Cardinals
7
3
7
14
31
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
369
Total Plays
57
72
Yards / Play
5.8
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.12
Passing Yards
246
281
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
30/46(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.30
Rushing Yards
87
88
Rush Attempts
18
24
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
45%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.86
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-25
-19
Sack EPA
-8.64
-3.62
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
35
51
Penalty EPA
-5.31
-4.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+77.7
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-41.9
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+34.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+34.0
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
9
EPA
EPA / Play
5
2
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
6
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
14
14
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
13
RZ Efficiency
30
17
Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
24
EPA
EPA / Play
20
27
EPA / Pass
21
26
EPA / Rush
20
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
32
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-3-1
SU
8-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Cardinals
4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U