WASCommanders
3-8
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
049
INDColts
7-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
7
14
3
27
Colts
7
14
15
7
43
Spread
-8.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
487
Total Plays
74
49
Yards / Play
5.7
9.9
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.30
Passing Yards
341
361
Comp/Att
31/47(66%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
13.4
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.43
Rushing Yards
84
126
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
4.0
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
33%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-6.64
-13.97
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-51
-9
Sack EPA
-14.79
-5.86
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
78
94
Penalty EPA
-7.09
-8.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model77.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+243
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+58.2
Home QB Adjustment
+25.3
Away QB Adjustment
-32.9
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
215.2
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-32.9
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
18
Yards / Game
13
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
18
19
EPA
EPA / Play
23
11
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
18
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
28
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
32
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
3
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
27
32
Colts Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
29
Yards / Game
3
19
Passing Yards / Game
1
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12
EPA
EPA / Play
10
31
EPA / Pass
9
32
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
24
28
Fumbles / Game
30
16
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
12
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U