WASCommanders
2-5
20
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
017
DALCowboys
6-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Commanders
3
0
7
7
3
20
Cowboys
0
7
3
7
0
17
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
409
395
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
6.4
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.03
Passing Yards
286
224
Comp/Att
25/30(83%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.06
Rushing Yards
123
171
Rush Attempts
31
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
6.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.60
-6.70
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-13
-54
Sack EPA
-4.32
-8.90
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
45
35
Penalty EPA
-5.26
-1.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+220
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+74.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.4
Away QB Adjustment
-60.4
Market Regression
+39.6
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-60.4
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
13
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8
EPA
EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
18
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
26
12
Fumbles / Game
32
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
32
18
RZ Efficiency
27
25
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
9
19
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
12
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
8
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
2
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
3
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U