WASCommanders
3-2
24
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
9 mph
34
PHIEagles
5-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
7
7
7
24
Eagles
0
17
7
10
34
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
371
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
5.5
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.18
Passing Yards
269
244
Comp/Att
30/40(75%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.50
Rushing Yards
75
127
Rush Attempts
18
33
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.97
-0.57
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-34
-24
Sack EPA
-6.45
-5.33
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
55
55
Penalty EPA
-6.29
-7.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+31.3
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.4
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
26
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
14
7
EPA / Rush
29
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
6
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
2
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32
EPA
EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
2
8
EPA / Rush
11
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
12
Interceptions / Game
4
9
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U