WASCommanders
6-7
17
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
42°F
7 mph
27
PHIEagles
6-7
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
42°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
10
0
0
7
17
Eagles
0
10
10
7
27
Spread
10
P
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
237
519
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
4.4
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
174
281
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
10.8
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.23
Rushing Yards
63
238
Rush Attempts
21
41
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
46%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.90
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-20
-15
Sack EPA
-3.56
-9.53
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-5.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model76.6%
Spread Pick
Commanders+10.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+31.0
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
-16.7
Home Bye Adj
+10.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+118.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-116.3
Market Regression
+97.7
Final Difference
205.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
G. Gilbert
Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-116.3
Value
Ptile
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
19
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
3
Rushing Yards / Game
11
9
EPA
EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
14
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
21
21
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
12
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
26
29
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
3
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
8
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U