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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ eagles week 15, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
6-7
17
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
42°F
7 mph
27
PHIEagles
6-7
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
42°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
10
0
0
7
17
Eagles
0
10
10
7
27

Spread

WAS logo
PHI logo
10
P

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
237
519
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
4.4
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
174
281
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
10.8
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.23
Rushing Yards
63
238
Rush Attempts
21
41
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
46%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.90
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-20
-15
Sack EPA
-3.56
-9.53
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-5.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model76.6%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+31.0
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
-16.7
Home Bye Adj
+10.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+118.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-116.3
Market Regression
+97.6
Final Difference
206.5
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

G. Gilbert headshot

G. Gilbert

Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-116.3
Value
Ptile
11/08
0.7
49
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
09/27
0.6
58
10/03
6.4
89
10/10
-0.2
52
10/14
-2.7
34
10/24
1.4
63
10/31
-1.2
44
11/07
2.4
71
11/14
1.8
66
11/21
2.9
74
11/28
-7.9
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
23
19
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
3
Rushing Yards / Game
11
9

EPA

EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
14
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
21
21
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
12
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
26
29
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
8

EPA

EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
3
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
8
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
4
W
W
O
10/10
-11
L
L
O
10/17
-18
L
L
U
10/24
-14
L
L
U
10/31
-7
L
L
U
11/14
10
W
W
U
11/21
6
W
W
O
11/29
2
W
W
U
12/05
2
W
W
U
12/12
-7
L
L
U
PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-12
L
L
O
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/14
-6
L
W
U
10/24
-11
L
L
O
10/31
38
W
W
O
11/07
-3
L
L
O
11/14
17
W
W
U
11/21
11
W
W
O
11/28
-6
L
L
U
12/05
15
W
W
O