WASCommanders
3-10
13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
9 mph
24
NYGGiants
4-9
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
7
3
0
13
Giants
7
0
10
7
24
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
287
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
5.5
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.09
Passing Yards
228
238
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.30
Rushing Yards
144
49
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
20%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-1.14
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-47
-12
Sack EPA
-11.83
-1.86
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
120
60
Penalty EPA
-11.02
-5.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model71.7%
Spread Pick
Commanders+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+123
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,424
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+48.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-31.4
Market Regression
+19.7
Final Difference
161.1
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-31.4
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
9
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30
EPA
EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
18
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
11
19
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
26
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
15
28
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
31
24
RZ Efficiency
8
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U