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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ lions week 2, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
1-0
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
36
DETLions
0-1
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
15
12
27
Lions
10
10
7
7
34

Spread

DET logo
0

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
398
425
Total Plays
74
61
Yards / Play
5.4
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.12
Passing Yards
310
234
Comp/Att
30/48(63%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.04
Rushing Yards
88
191
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
4.2
8.0
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.18
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-29
-22
Sack EPA
-8.29
-4.72
Penalties
2
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+50.5
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
-15.3
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
11/04
4.9
84
11/14
-4.9
20
11/21
0.2
54
11/28
0.5
56
12/05
-1.1
44
12/18
-5.3
18
12/25
0.9
60
01/02
-3.4
28
01/09
-9.8
4
09/11
3.3
77
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Value
Ptile
10/17
-3.9
25
10/24
-2.7
33
10/31
-6.0
15
11/14
-7.5
10
11/25
2.6
72
12/05
0.5
56
12/12
-2.2
36
12/19
4.4
81
01/09
3.4
78
09/11
-1.4
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Commanders logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
24
28
Yards / Game
20
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
22
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29

EPA

EPA / Play
22
30
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
21
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
31
Interceptions / Game
25
19
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
21
21
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Lions logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
5
8
Yards / Game
4
3
Passing Yards / Game
17
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
11

EPA

EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
25
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
8
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
11
29
Turnover EPA / Game
30
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
4
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
10
W
W
U
11/21
6
W
W
O
11/29
2
W
W
U
12/05
2
W
W
U
12/12
-7
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
P
O
12/26
-42
L
L
O
01/02
-4
L
W
U
01/09
15
W
W
U
09/11
6
W
W
O
DET logo

Lions

3-6-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
0
T
W
U
11/21
-3
L
W
U
11/25
-2
L
P
U
12/05
2
W
W
O
12/12
-28
L
L
O
12/19
18
W
W
U
12/26
-4
L
W
U
01/02
-22
L
L
O
01/09
7
W
W
O
09/11
-3
L
W
O