WASCommanders
1-0
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
036
DETLions
0-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
15
12
27
Lions
10
10
7
7
34
Spread
0
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
425
Total Plays
74
61
Yards / Play
5.4
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.12
Passing Yards
310
234
Comp/Att
30/48(63%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.04
Rushing Yards
88
191
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
4.2
8.0
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.18
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-29
-22
Sack EPA
-8.29
-4.72
Penalties
2
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+50.5
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
-15.3
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
28
Yards / Game
20
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
22
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29
EPA
EPA / Play
22
30
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
21
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
31
Interceptions / Game
25
19
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
21
21
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
8
Yards / Game
4
3
Passing Yards / Game
17
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
11
EPA
EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
25
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
8
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
11
29
Turnover EPA / Game
30
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
4
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
3-6-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U