WASCommanders
2-6
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
030
DETLions
3-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
0
7
17
27
Lions
7
10
7
6
30
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
464
372
Total Plays
83
55
Yards / Play
5.6
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.24
Passing Yards
375
267
Comp/Att
38/55(69%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.34
Rushing Yards
89
105
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
34
21
Passing 1st downs
22
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
47%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.77
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-9
Sack EPA
-3.98
-2.07
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
58
55
Penalty EPA
-4.28
-8.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model57.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+17
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,385
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-45.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+43.9
Market Regression
+101.3
Final Difference
55.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+43.9
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
32
Yards / Game
29
32
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28
EPA
EPA / Play
27
32
EPA / Pass
29
32
EPA / Rush
11
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
10
Interceptions / Game
27
30
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
10
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
15
31
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
5
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
15
EPA
EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
29
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
5
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
7
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Lions
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U