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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ lions week 10, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
2-6
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
30
DETLions
3-5
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
0
7
17
27
Lions
7
10
7
6
30

Spread

WAS logo
DET logo
3
P

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
464
372
Total Plays
83
55
Yards / Play
5.6
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.24
Passing Yards
375
267
Comp/Att
38/55(69%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.34
Rushing Yards
89
105
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
34
21
Passing 1st downs
22
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
47%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.77
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-9
Sack EPA
-3.98
-2.07
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
58
55
Penalty EPA
-4.28
-8.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,383
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-45.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+43.9
Market Regression
+111.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+43.9
Value
Ptile
09/09
2.0
62
09/16
1.5
57
09/23
0.3
48
10/08
-2.8
29
10/14
-2.5
31
10/21
-1.2
38
10/28
0.2
48
11/04
-0.5
42
11/11
-2.9
28
11/18
-9.6
4
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
10/27
2.7
70
11/03
3.4
74
09/13
1.0
51
09/20
-2.2
28
09/27
-0.5
42
10/04
-1.4
34
10/18
-1.6
33
10/25
1.6
55
11/01
0.3
48
11/08
-3.0
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Commanders logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
25
32
Yards / Game
29
32
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28

EPA

EPA / Play
27
32
EPA / Pass
29
32
EPA / Rush
11
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
10
Interceptions / Game
27
30
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
10
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
15
31
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Lions logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
5
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
15

EPA

EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
29
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
5
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
7
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
10
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-6
L
L
O
12/29
-31
L
L
O
09/13
10
W
W
O
09/20
-15
L
L
U
09/27
-14
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
W
O
10/11
-20
L
L
U
10/18
-1
L
W
U
10/25
22
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
L
P
DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-10
L
L
O
12/29
-3
L
W
U
09/13
-4
L
L
O
09/20
-21
L
L
O
09/27
3
W
W
U
10/04
-6
L
L
O
10/18
18
W
W
U
10/25
1
W
W
U
11/01
-20
L
L
O
11/08
-14
L
L
O