WASCommanders
3-4
12
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
45°F
10 mph
27
PITSteelers
3-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
45°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
3
3
12
Steelers
10
10
7
0
27
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
255
355
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
4.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.23
Passing Yards
169
215
Comp/Att
16/35(46%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.28
Rushing Yards
86
140
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-1.19
-1.36
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-5.44
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model67.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.0
Home QB Adjustment
+17.6
Away QB Adjustment
+44.6
Market Regression
-1.7
Final Difference
125.6
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+44.6
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
5
Yards / Game
9
1
Passing Yards / Game
15
5
Rushing Yards / Game
1
2
EPA
EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
6
7
EPA / Rush
2
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
30
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
29
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Steelers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
22
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
10
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9
EPA
EPA / Play
18
23
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
29
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
21
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
28
15
Turnover EPA / Game
13
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
12
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U