WASCommanders
4-7
23
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
34°F
10 mph
17
PITSteelers
11-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
34°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
7
13
23
Steelers
0
14
0
3
17
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
326
Total Plays
70
67
Yards / Play
4.5
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.13
Passing Yards
273
--
Comp/Att
31/46(67%)
33/53(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.04
Rushing Yards
45
21
Rush Attempts
21
14
Yards / Rush
2.1
1.5
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.58
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
24%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.52
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-2.77
--
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
62
45
Penalty EPA
-8.36
-8.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model73.4%
Spread Pick
Steelers-5.5
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+216
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,405
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
+29.0
Market Regression
-9.4
Final Difference
175.9
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
29
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
26
13
EPA
EPA / Play
27
2
EPA / Pass
29
2
EPA / Rush
11
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
32
Interceptions / Game
27
4
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
1
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Steelers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
6
Rushing Yards / Game
32
15
EPA
EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
32
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
5
Interceptions / Game
25
7
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
7
4th Down Efficiency
11
2
RZ Efficiency
8
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Steelers
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U