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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ steelers week 13, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
4-7
23
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
34°F
10 mph
17
PITSteelers
11-0
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
34°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
7
13
23
Steelers
0
14
0
3
17

Spread

WAS logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
318
326
Total Plays
70
67
Yards / Play
4.5
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.13
Passing Yards
273
--
Comp/Att
31/46(67%)
33/53(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.04
Rushing Yards
45
21
Rush Attempts
21
14
Yards / Rush
2.1
1.5
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.58
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
24%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.52
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-2.77
--
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
62
45
Penalty EPA
-8.36
-8.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model72.7%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+213
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
+29.0
Market Regression
-15.4
Final Difference
169.9
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
Value
Ptile
10/08
-2.8
29
10/14
-2.5
31
10/21
-1.2
38
10/28
0.2
48
11/04
-0.5
42
11/11
-2.9
28
11/18
-9.6
4
11/15
2.5
63
11/22
-5.8
12
11/26
-5.9
12
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Value
Ptile
09/20
3.4
69
09/27
-1.1
37
10/11
6.1
84
10/18
-3.1
23
10/25
-2.1
29
11/01
0.8
50
11/08
8.0
92
11/15
6.8
87
11/22
1.8
57
12/02
3.1
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Commanders logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
29
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
26
13

EPA

EPA / Play
27
2
EPA / Pass
29
2
EPA / Rush
11
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
32
Interceptions / Game
27
4
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
1
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Steelers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Steelers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
6
Rushing Yards / Game
32
15

EPA

EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
32
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
5
Interceptions / Game
25
7
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
7
4th Down Efficiency
11
2
RZ Efficiency
8
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-15
L
L
U
09/27
-14
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
W
O
10/11
-20
L
L
U
10/18
-1
L
W
U
10/25
22
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
L
P
11/15
-3
L
L
O
11/22
11
W
W
U
11/26
25
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
5
W
L
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/18
31
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
W
P
11/01
4
W
W
O
11/08
5
W
L
U
11/15
26
W
W
O
11/22
24
W
W
U
12/02
5
W
L
U