WASCommanders
-
6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
017
HOUTexans
-
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
0
0
6
Texans
0
8
0
3
11
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
321
Total Plays
63
56
Yards / Play
5.9
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.06
Passing Yards
241
--
Comp/Att
29/37(78%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.44
Rushing Yards
131
115
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-6.93
-4.86
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-5.98
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
71
45
Penalty EPA
-7.17
-4.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
13
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
23
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9
EPA
EPA / Play
23
2
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
18
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
32
6
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
7
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Texans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
29
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
5
12
EPA
EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
14
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
11
28
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
16
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
24
RZ Efficiency
15
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U