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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ commanders week 8, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
3-3
33
TBD
FedExField
60°F
4 mph
19
WASCommanders
3-3
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
60°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
7
9
4
27
Commanders
10
3
0
6
19

Spread

DAL logo
-3

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
307
285
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.39
Passing Yards
138
236
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.17
Rushing Yards
169
49
Rush Attempts
39
15
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.75
-17.12
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-5
-27
Sack EPA
-2.15
-8.17
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
89
32
Penalty EPA
-10.93
-12.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-10.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.1
Away QB Adjustment
+26.3
Market Regression
-68.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.3
Value
Ptile
12/18
6.3
88
12/26
5.6
85
01/01
-5.3
14
01/15
3.2
74
09/10
3.6
79
09/17
-0.3
50
09/25
4.6
83
10/01
1.8
66
10/08
7.9
93
10/22
8.1
94
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Value
Ptile
12/11
-1.1
40
12/19
2.0
64
12/24
8.7
94
01/01
-3.8
21
09/10
-3.0
32
09/17
-0.9
45
09/24
10.2
97
10/02
5.5
86
10/15
7.5
92
10/23
3.9
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
27
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32

EPA

EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
1
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
11
23
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
17
6
Passing Yards / Game
14
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8

EPA

EPA / Play
25
16
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
29
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
17
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
6
W
L
U
12/26
21
W
W
O
01/01
-14
L
L
U
01/15
-3
L
L
O
09/10
16
W
W
U
09/17
-25
L
L
O
09/25
11
W
W
U
10/01
-5
L
L
O
10/08
-4
L
L
O
10/22
30
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
5
W
W
O
12/19
-11
L
L
U
12/24
20
W
W
O
01/01
-9
L
L
U
09/10
-13
L
L
U
09/17
7
W
W
O
09/24
17
W
W
U
10/02
-9
L
L
O
10/15
2
W
L
O
10/23
-10
L
L
O