DALCowboys
3-3
33
TBD
FedExField
60°F
4 mph
19
WASCommanders
3-3
TBD
FedExField
60°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
7
9
4
27
Commanders
10
3
0
6
19
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
285
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.39
Passing Yards
138
236
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.17
Rushing Yards
169
49
Rush Attempts
39
15
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.75
-17.12
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-5
-27
Sack EPA
-2.15
-8.17
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
89
32
Penalty EPA
-10.93
-12.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+40.7
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-10.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.1
Away QB Adjustment
+26.3
Market Regression
-68.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+26.3
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
27
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32
EPA
EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
1
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
11
23
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
17
6
Passing Yards / Game
14
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
25
16
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
29
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
17
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U